It's all about the oil

Besides the bad economic news you are hearing just about every day, the next few weeks are going to be about oil and gas.  Israel pushed into the gaza strip is going to affect crude oil prices, since the market tends to get a bit nervous whenever there is conflict in that region.  Russia also cut off gas supplies to the Ukraine so your going to see prices going up in that market, doesn't matter that it's half a world away.

So if you are like me and watch the market as a serious hobby then some stocks of interest may be Exxon Mobile (XOM), Chesapeake Energy Corportation (CHK), British Petrolium (BP) or any of the other big movers and shakers.  The oil & gas ETF's should be a good investment at the moment until the end of January, if Obama gets his stimulus passed and it includes all the alternative energy subsidies that I think it will then you may see a market drop at that point.

In other news, the Eagles won!

Your mortgage and 2009

What to do what to do.  Mortgage rates are at and incredible low right now with some banks offering 4.7% but the standards for qualification have gone way up.  You need a FICO of at least 720 to qualify for the best rates (this is up almost 60 points from a year ago).  You also need alot more proof to even qualify, including a steady job, and with the jobless rate almost breaking 10% now there are alot of people out there that have no recourse.  Personally I would wait until mid next year to see what happens,  Obama  and his crew are probably going to force rates lower at some point to ease the burden on over extended borrowers.  You might also see some "Tax Free" days where you don't have to pay federal income tax,  which is nice since we'll see some more cash flow.

Housing prices are going to continue to freefall until the markets can stabalize themselves,  13% last year and probably another 10% by mid year 2009.  So refinancing your current mortgage with such a fluid index could mean if you didn't do it right you could end up paying more than your house is worth, a bad boat to be in.  So I would hold tight on the refinance.

I'm really looking forward to January 20th and Obama's innauguration, he wants a stimulus put in place that he can push the same day he takes office and maybe we'll finally see some benefit come to us instead of the bloated banks and corporations that we are so gamely supporting with our tax money.  Key words to remember is infrastructure, Roads and Bridges and companies that are part of that sector, if the stimulus passes, stand to have a big influx of cash on hand so we might see some nice stock movement!

Happy New Years Everybody!

So at the end of the year....

The 4:00 bell rang and the 2008 stock market has come to a close so it's time to see the damage done, which actually was less than I expected.  I ended up just down 9.28% on the year which considering at the beginning of september my portfolio was down almost 40%.  Some late market purchases made up the difference and some good movement on a couple stocks that I had faith in.  So to recap: 

My big winners were:

AEG (Aegnon NV) up 2.89%

CBI (Chicago Bridge and Iron) up 15%

DDM (Proshares Ultra Dow 30 ETF) up 10.25%

UYG (Proshares Ultra Financials) up 34.6%

YGE (Yingli Green Energy Holding Company NV) up 13.31%

Big losers were:

SIRI (Sirius XM Radio) down 71.21%

LVS (Las Vegas Sands Corp) down 20.61%

MSFT (Microsoft Corporation) down 22.53%

WWE (World Wide Wrestling Entertainment) down 24.56%

With dollar cost averaging the big down's didn't hurt me as much as I expected, and Sirius which was a huge loser for me this year is trading in the penny range .12 last time I checked so any movement on this issue nets a big loss or gain.

Next year the key word for me is DRIP, I'm going to look at some sound infrastructure investments because Obama is going to be throwing money at that sector.  I'll probably increase my position in YGE and PBW and maybe the ICLN iShares Select Green Energy Fund.  And besides my Roth IRA I'm going to be putting money into AGG, Lehman Bonds Market shares and SPY the SPDR S&P 500 index tracker.  McDonalds (MCD), Heinz (HNZ) and Waste Management (WMI) all look like good bets and have high caps ratings. So crossing my fingers that we see some positive movement!

And we're off!

So the last trading day of the year has arrived and so far it's looking good.  The predictions for 2009 are pretty bleak, but hey if you have a spare bit of coin it's like shopping at the dollar store.  My friends Shawn convinced me to invest in a Roth IRA for next year so I'm setting that up now,  hopefully it can do a little bit better than my 403(b) did this year because about the only thing that went down faster than my retirement fund was the titanic,  or a drunk girl at the prom.

As for New Years eve, this is going to be the first year that I actually have nothing to do,  all my friends are out of town and nothing seems to be going on.  I could hit up a bar but where is the fun in hanging out at a bar with strangers.  Plus that is a recipie for disaster since when I go out drinking alone I have a tendency to wake up the next morning wondering where I left my pants.

Anywhoo, for anybody reading this I wish you a happy new year!  Drive safe if you are going out, or have fun if you are staying in.  Here is looking to 2009 with a new president and maybe a new perspective for the country.

Ford should be renamed FUBAR

So of the big three Ford was the only company that really didn't need any bailout money,  they weren't going to miss the boat on it, but really didn't need it.  Even so they have lost almost 90% of their value this year and have to make some hard decisions if they want their company to be economically viable in the future.  So what do they decide to do?  Instead of making more efficient cars and investing some real money in green alternatives, which by and large the entire nation wants, they instead decide to offer "self parking" on their lexus line of vehicles.

So let me get this strait, instead of helping the enviroment they are going to continue to cater to a select audience of buyers who tend to have more money than they know what to do with, and make them even lazier by letting the car parellel park for them?  Ok we need to line up the folks at ford and give them one of those big three stooges slaps.  I mean come'on!  Who the hell in this economy can afford a lexus?  I can't!  And I bet 99% of the people I know can't either.  And who can't parellel park? I don't need my car to do that for me.  Now if they invent a car that will drive itself to work for me, or cup my nuts in a loving manner or even a car where the lighter isn't optional then I might be interested (especially if they invent that second one <.<).

Please Ford, get a clue.

What the hell is up with ATVI?

Ok so the stock market is in the dumps, housing  prices have fallen nearly 13% in the last month alone and pretty soon we'll all be paying more than our house is worth yay!  But in trying economic times you still need to make sound investments, or at least that is what Jim Cramer keeps telling me on his nightly program.  ATVI (Activision Blizzard) looks to be a pretty good bet, they have two of the worlds largest video games; Guitar Hero and World of Warcraft plus a beavy of new titles coming to stores in the near future (read: Starcraft 2 and Diablo 3).  They have 2 billion dollars in excess cash, their P/E is 15.50 and growth rate over 5 years has been 23%.  People should be loving this stock like a fat kid loves cake!

Even the Motley Fool has it listed as a 5 star caps rating and that is the summary of the unwashed masses (and a few washed ones).  Yet today they were just .15c off their 52-week low.  I don't know about you but I'm throwing money at this sucker while the throwing is good.  If SC2 and D3 are as good as I think they are, and they increase their expansion into the downloadable content market like they did for WOTLK their margin is going to decrease and the payouts to the retailers are going to lessen, thus making the bottom line look even better.  You can't go wrong with Guitar Hero and World of Warcraft.  Too bad they aren't giving a dividend.

On the flip side, my YGE bet seems to be paying off a bit, 16.29% on the upside today! and it finally busted thru the resistance it was seeing at 6$.  Now we just need WWE to start performing again and the future will be bright!